NFL Game Of The Week: New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons

The surging Patriots travel to Atlanta Thursday to take on a Falcons team that has put together some good wins but also struggled to achieve any kind of consistency this season. Atlanta is coming off a 43-3 beatdown at the hands of Dallas last week, while the Patriots issued a 45-7 drubbing of their own to the Browns on Sunday. Atlanta is just 1-3 at home, while the Patriots are undefeated (4-0) on the road. 

Mac Jones is starting to look like the first rounder New England wanted. Jones was 19-of-23 for 198 yards and three touchdowns with no INTs in the Patriots 45-7 win over Cleveland. The rookie quarterback has thrown for 2,333 yards this season, 14th amongst QBs. Jones has completed 69 percent of his passes with 13 TDs and seven interceptions. New England's 241.7 yards per game though the air put them, like Jones, at 14th in the league. Jones and the rest of the offense are starting to translate those yards into points. Their 27.5 per game are sixth in the league. They should be able to pad that total against a Falcons defense which is near the bottom of the league in points allowed (29.2 per game). Only the Jets (32.9) have given up more. 

One of Jones' favorite targets is Hunter Henry, who's seven TD catches lead the team and are the most amongst NFL tight ends this season. Kendrick Bourne (33 REC, 520 YDS, 3 TDS) leads the team in receiving yards, and Jacobi Myers leads the Patriots with 50 receptions. Myers, in his third year out of NC State, finally got the first touchdown catch of his career Sunday against a Browns secondary that gave up four in total. Nelson Agholor (24 Rec, 356 YDS, 2 TDS) and Brandon Bolden (25 REC, 227 YDS, 1 TD) are a few of the other threats what will keep Atlanta's defense occupied. 

New England's 114.5 yards per game on the ground puts them around the middle of the pack at 17th, but running back Damien Harris' seven rushing touchdowns are the third most in the league. Harris' 547 rushing yards lead the team. The Pats have done a nice job of mixing it up with Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson (55 ATT, 236 YDS, 3 TDS) and Brandon Bolden (25 ATT, 140 YDS). 

The New England defense appears to have found its identity in the four weeks since giving up 35 points to the Cowboys, the last time the Patriots lost. During the Pats' current four-game wining streak they are holding opponents to an average of 12.4 points per game and contributed to the team outscoring Carolina and Cleveland by a 69-13 margin. Overall, they are holding opponents to only 17.7 points per game this year, good for fourth. 

Safety Kyle Duggar leads the team in tackles (49 solo) and linebacker Ja'Whuan Bentley is close behind with 44. Cornerback J.C. Jackson's five INTS lead the team and has him tied for second overall in the league. They've been especially tough against the pass, giving up 220.2 yards per game though the air, good for eighth. The Pats are in the top five of several other defensive categories, including opponent passing percentage (59.4%) (3rd), average opponent points in the second half (7.9) (2nd), and opponent team passer rating (75.7) (2nd). 

New England has had less success against the the rush, giving up 107.9 yards per game on the ground (14th), but they've allowed only two rushing TDS in their last five games. Atlanta is one of just a handful of teams averaging under 100 yards per game on the ground, so Sunday shouldn't be a terribly difficult day for New England's run defense. 

Atlanta's loss to Dallas on Sunday was ugly. QB Matt Ryan was 9-for-21 for 117 yards and two INTs. The Falcons were held to just 214 yards of total offense and had 11 first downs to the Cowboys 22. Atlanta was 1-for-11 on third down and threw three INTs total, with backup Josh Rosen tossing the third after Ryan was pulled when the game was out of reach. Former Falcons head coach and current Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn got the game ball after his squad held Atlanta to three total points. Things weren't any better for Atlanta's D.  Dak Prescott threw for 296 yards and two TDs. Ezekiel Elliot ran for two scores and Prescott added another. Wow, even I want to forget about what the Falcons experienced in this game. Atlanta's one bight spot may have been that they managed to hold Elliot to just 41 yards on the ground.

This had to have been a frustrating loss coming off a 28-25 win over New Orleans the week before. QB Matt Ryan had one of his best games against the Saints, throwing for 343 yards and two TDS. Ryan and the Falcons will be eager to prove their loss in Dallas was an aberration. They'll need to get their rushing attack going if they want that to happen. The Falcons are averaging 82.9 yards per game on the ground this year (29th) and 3.5 yards per carry (30th). Cordarelle Patterson (77 ATT, 303 YDS, 2 TDS) and Mike Davis (88 ATT, 289 YDS, 1 TD) have split the carries. 

Rookie tight end Kyle Pitts has a team leading 40 receptions and 606 receiving yards and has shown flashes of brilliance, but has just one touchdown catch this year. Pitts is a major weapon and the Falcons need to get him more scoring opportunities. Cordarelle Patterson is technically a running back, but has faired better as a receiver this season. His 39 receptions are second on the team, and he leads Atlanta with five receiving touchdowns. Patterson has also been a solid contributor on special teams, averaging 23.7 yards per return on kickoffs (12th). 

Ryan has completed 218-of-322 passes (67.7%) for 2,274 yards and 15 touchdowns, with eight interceptions. All pretty much middle of the pack stuff, though his completion percentage is good for eighth amongst quarterbacks. Fomer first round pick Calvin Ridley, one of Ryans's favorite targets, stepped away from the team for undisclosed personal reasons after Week 5, and will not be active against New England. Ridley has 28 career touchdowns with Atlantas since being drafted in 2018.

Atlanta is giving up 246.2 yards per game through the air (17th) and 122.1 yards per game on the ground (21st). They are surrendering 29.2 points per game on the year, with only the Jets allowing more. The Falcons have the least sacks (11) of any team this season. Their team total is two less than NFL sack leader Myles Garrett, who has 13. They've given up an average of 30 points per game over their last six contests, yet still managed to go 3-3 during that stretch. Ryan and their offense has helped win them some games, but clearly Atlanta's defense has problems. 

That isn't to say they don't have some playmakers on that side of the ball. Linebacker Foyesade Oluokon's 100 total tackles are tops on the team and third in the league. Deioin Jones (50 solo tackles) and Safety Erik Harris (38 solo tackles) are also standouts, while Cornerback Jaylinn Hawkins leads the team with two interceptions. 

Prediction 

The Pats are clearly the better team. They are on the road and there's always the potential for a hangover following a big win like they had against Cleveland, but Bill Belichick is too good of a coach to let that happen. 

Patriots 35- Falcons 17