NFL Game Of The Week: Houstan Texans at San Francisco 49ers

The 4-11 Texans will travel to Santa Clara Sunday to take on a banded up 49ers team that remains in the hunt for an NFC wildcard slot despite a costly loss to Tennessee on Thursday.

Any temptation to take the Texans lightly should be tempered by their 41-29 win over the Chargers on Sunday. Texans quarterback Davis Mills completed 21 of 27 passes for 254 yards and two touchdowns,  while running back Rex Burkhead ran for 149 yards and two scores in the win, Houston's second straight. 

Mills has completed 219 0f 329 passes this season for 2,200 yards and 12 touchdowns with 9 interceptions. The rookie third-round pick stepped in early in the season after Tyrod Taylor suffered a hamstring injury in Week 2. Taylor, an eleven-year veteran who the Texans signed to a one -year contract this off-season, struggled upon his return, and Mils was named the official starter heading into Week 14. Brandin Cooks (80 REC, 945 YDS, 5 TDS) leads the team in receiving yards and touchdown receptions, but no other receiver on the roster has more than 30 catches. Houston's 192 passing yards per game is 31st in the league, behind only Chicago. 

Rex Burkhead ( 94 ATT, 356 YDS, 3 TDS) leads the team in rushing yards and has been the featured back following the Texans Week 7 trade of Mark Ingram to New Orleans, but Houston has struggled on the ground. They are averaging 84.8 rushing yards per game, last in the NFL.

Kamu Grieger-Hill's 94 tackles (61 solo), leads the Texans defense in tackles and sacks (3). The Texans are in the bottom half of the league in nearly every defensive category, giving up 239.7 yards per game through the air (17th), 141.3 rushing yards per game (tied for 30th), and allowing 26.7 points per game (29th). One bright spot is takeaways; their 16 team interceptions are tied for sixth in the league. The Texans intercepted off Charger's quarterback Justin Herbert twice in Sunday's win, including a pick six by cornerback Tavierre Thomas. Cornerback Lonnie Johnson Jr. leads the team in interceptions with 3. 

San Francisco is 8-7 and is one of several NFC teams vying for a wildcard spot, sitting at or just above .500. A win over Houston coupled with a New Orleans loss at Carolina will get them into the playoffs. They suffered a blow this week when it was announced that quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo sustained a UCL tear and fracture in his right thumb during Thursday's loss to Tennessee and is listed as questionable for Sundays' game. 

Garoppolo has completed 278-of-409 passes for 3,494 yards with 19 touchdowns and 10 interceptions this season. Much hyped first-round pick Trey Lance will get the start if Garoppolo can't play. Lance has completed 25 of 48 passes for 354 yards and three touchdowns and one interception this season in limited action. The 49ers' fortunes often seems to rise and fall on whether or not Garoppolo turns the ball over. They are 7-0 when he doesn't throw a pick, 1-6 when he does. 

Wide Receiver Deebo Samuel has emerged as a true duel receiving and running threat this season. Samuel (70 REC, 1,247 YDS, 5 TDS) is fourth amongst NFL wideouts in receiving yards. He has carried the ball 44 times for 301 yard and seven touchdowns. Tight End George Kittle (65 REC, 871 YDS, 6 TDS) has battled through injuries this season, but remains one of Garoppolo's favorite targets and leads the team in touchdown receptions. 

Wideout Brandon Aiyuk has also turned a corner after a disappointingly slow start to the season. Aiyuk has 46 catches for 625 yards and five TDs. The 49ers are averaging 244.4 yards per game through the air (13th). Their fortunes often seems to rise and fall on whether or not Garoppolo turns the ball over. They are 1-6 when he throws and interception, 7-0 when he doesn't. Garoppolo completed 26-of-35 passes for 322 yards and a touchdown against the Titans. but also threw two interceptions as the 49ers lost for just the second time in seven weeks. 

The 49ers are averaging 123.7 yards per game on the ground (7th) thanks in part to both Samuel and rookie Elijah Mitchell. The rookie out of Louisiana has carried the ball 165 times for 795 yards and five touchdowns, averaging 4.6 yards per carry. Mitchell suffered a knee injury in Week 13 and is listed as questionable for Sunday. if he can't go, Jeff Wilson (79 ATT, 294 YDS, 2 TDS) will get the start. 

Linebacker Fred Warner leads the defense with 114 tackles (67 solo). The 49ers were dealt another injury blow Thursday when star linebacker Azeez Al-Shair (102 total tackles, 9 tackles for loss, 1 INT) suffered a knee sprain and was ruled out for Sunday. The 49ers will also be without DL DJ Jones, LB Dre Greenlaw and CB Emmanuel Mosley against the Texans. They are giving up 211.5 yards per game through the air (7th) and 107.3 rushing yards per game (11th), but continue to struggle in one key area: defending the pass without getting penalized. They have a 17 DPIs this season for 304 yards, both are most in the league. 

Prediction

If the 49ers can minimize turnovers and penalties, even with all the injuries and Trey Lance possibly making just his second carer start, they should win this game against a team that just doesn't matchup with them on either side of the ball. 

49ers 30-Texans 22