NFL Game Of The Week: Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders

The Chiefs will head to Vegas to take on the Raiders Sunday in a matchup between two teams that have had eventful seasons full of disappointments in production and personal conduct. Patrick Mahomes has thrown 10 interceptions and not looked like the dominating force of the last two years. The KC defense has struggled, ranking in the bottom half of the league in several categories, including passing and rushing yards allowed. Yet somehow they have won three of their last four and at 5-4 and still alive in the AFC West. 

The Raiders fired head coach Jon Gruden after it was discovered he sent numerous homophobic and and misogonistic emails between 2011-2018. They've cut several players for off-field legal troubles, but somehow still sit at 5-3 and are also very much alive in the AFC West. Sunday's matchup will be a big game for both teams. 

News flash! News Flash! Patrick Mahomes is no longer the league leader in interceptions. The world can stop panicking and predicting his demise. With 11 each, Joe Burrow and Sam Darnold now own that distinction. But with 10, Mahomes does have more picks than most active QBs, including Trevor Lawrence (9), Zach Wilson (9) and Justin Fields (8). You know, all those rookies. What is happening with Mahomes and the Kansas City offense? Are they terrible? Are they predictable? Does Andy Reid miss wearing that giant face shield? There are no easy answers, and not all of it is on their fifth-year quarterback.  

Firstly, Mahomes' stats through eight games are perfectly respectable. He has completed 236 of 362 passes (65.2%) for 2,534 yards and 20 TDs. His yards through the air put him at fourth amongst QBs and his 20 TDs are tied for third, only Tom Brady (25) and Mathew Stafford (23) have more. But there are trouble spots. We already know about the interceptions. His completion percentage of 65.2 puts him at 21st, and he's been sacked 17 times (15th). His QBR of 92.5 is 19th, below a lot of quarterbacks that just a season ago were not even close to his skill level statistically. 

KC is averaging 281.0 yards per game through the air, good for 6th, but it hasn't translated to points. Their 24.6 per game put them at 15th, well below their standard. KC's rushing attack has also been a problem. Their 112.8 yards per game on the ground is a serviceable 15th, but once again it hasn't lead to points, with the Chiefs ranked 24th in rushing TDs. KC's leading rusher Clyde Edwards-Healire has 304 yards on the ground, but has been on IR since 10/10. 

Fans and pundits alike want the Chiefs to do the unthinkable and get boring, pound the rock and kick up clouds of dust. All that old school football stuff. That means getting Darrell Williams (84 ATT, 300 YDS, 4 TDs) more involved so Mahomes isn't always scrambling and putting himself and risk. Williams had 70 rushing yards on 19 carries in Sunday's win over the Packers, but that was about it for the Chiefs on the ground; they finished with 77 total rushing yards, averaging 3.1 per carry. Edwards-Helaire has been productive when healthy, averaging 4.7 yards per carry, but isn't expected to be active against Las Vegas. 

Despite their struggles, the Chiefs still have a lot of receiving threats. Tyreek Hill leads the team in receptions (68) yards (772) and TDs (6). Tight End Travis Kelce is always a threat, and enters Sunday with 54 receptions for 628 yards and 5 TDs. I'm not unconvinced that Mahomes and his receiving core will finds a way to get more in synch as the year goes on. They may be inconsistent at this point, but they're not incapable. This is a team coming off two consecutive Super Bowl appearances. 

Kansas City's defense is 24th in points per game allowed (25.2). They are 21st (121.8) in rushing yards allowed and 21st in yards allowed through the air (259.7). They'll have to up their play against Vegas, which enters Sunday's game averaging 305.1 yards per game through the air courtesy of quarterback Derek Carr, who has thrown for 2,565 yards this season, third in the league. 

Linebacker Nick Bolton leads the Chiefs in tackles with 71 (44 solo). L'Jarius Sneed (46 total tackles) and Tyron Mathieu (42 total tackles) anchor a defense that held the Packers, with backup QB Jordan Love starting, to just seven points in last Sunday's win. KC's D has had trouble getting off the field. They're 25th in third down conversions and 28th in fourth down conversions, two areas Vegas has struggled in, but something they need to clean up if they want to make the playoffs. 

Considering everything that has happened with Las Vegas this season, Derek Carr's 2,565 passing yards might babe the least of his accomplishments. Give the veteran quarterback credit for keeping the team together amidst an unexpected coaching change and other off-field turmoil. Carr has completed 210 of 332 passes (67.3%) with 13 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Vegas' 305.1 yards per game though the air is second in the league only to Tampa Bay. 

The Raiders don't have a single receiver who's caught more than three touchdowns this season, but Carr like to spread the ball around. Eight different Raiders have least one TD catch, including running backs Josh Jacobs and Kenyan Drake. Tight End Darren Waller leads the team with 470 yards receiving, and wideout Hunter Renfrow is close behind him with 445 yards and a team-leading 45 receptions. Carr will also now have DeSean Jackson to throw deep to, with Vegas signing the formers Eagles star this week after he was granted a release from the Rams. Jackson lead the NFL in yards per catch in 2010, 2014, 2016 and 2018. The 34-year old Jackson, a former 2008 second round pick, has 57 careers TD catches, but has been plagued by injury in recent seasons. Jackson struggled to find a fit in the Rams offense, where he had just eight receptions this season. Carr and company clearly believe they can make better use of his talents. Look for Jackson to play situationally this Sunday against KC.  

While their passing game has thrived, Vegas' ground game has struggled, averaging just 89.1 yards per game, putting them at 27th in the league. Josh Jacobs (73 ATT, 280 YDS, 5 TDS), Kenyan Drake (46 ATT, 190 YDS, 2 TDS) and Peyton Barber (37 ATT, 143 YDS, 1 TD) have split the carries. The Chiefs have struggled against the run, giving Vegas a chance to open up another dimension of their offense. 

Vegas has also had trouble stopping the run, giving up 113.5 yards per game, putting them at 27th. Linebacker Denzel Perryman leads the team with 91 tackles (58 solo). Cory Littleton, Jonathan Abrams, and Nate Hobbs make up a tough secondary that is giving up just 206.9 yards per game though the air, good for fifth. Even with Mahomes not at his best, they'll have their hands full on Sunday. 

Prediction 

The Chiefs enter as -2.5 point favorites and have some momentum with three straight wins, but I like the Raiders in an upset here. They've got the receiving threats to put up points against KC's struggling defense. 

Las Vegas 30-Kansas City 21