NFL Game Of The Week: Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers

It's 5-5 vs. 5-5. It's Cousins vs. Garoppolo. It's Shanahan vs. Zimmer. This Sunday we have ourselves an NFC masterpiece between two teams that have have struggled, but turned their seasons around with recent decisive wins. The winner will move to 6-5 and be in a a great position to ensure a wildcard playoff spot. Strap in. 

The 49ers hit a low point on 11/7 when they lost to a Kyler Murraly-less Arizona Cardinals 31-17. They rebounded with a season-changing 31-17 win over the Rams on MNF the next week, then avoided a letdown with a 31-10 win over Jacksonville on the road last Sunday. The 49ers kept the Jags out of the end zone and held them to just 54 yards rushing, while racking up 171 on the ground for themselves. They did all that without their lead Runner Elijah Mitchell, who remains questionable with a broken finger. 79 of those yards came courtesy of Deebo Samuel, who apparently, when he isn't serving as the teams leading pass-catcher, is also a running back. 

Samuel is having a breakout season following a injury-plagued 2020 in which he appeared in just seven games. His 994 receiving yards lead the team and are good for second in the league. Samuel has five touchdown catches and has rushed for three more this season. The 49ers are averaging 123.8 yards per game on the ground (8th) thanks in part to both Samuel and Mitchell. The rookie out of Louisiana has carried the ball 116 times for 560 yards and three touchdowns, averaging 4.8 yards per carry. The 49ers ran 42 times against Jacksonville and 44 times against the Rams. Look for that trend to continue against the Vikings with or without Mitchell in the lineup.  

Jimmy Garoppolo has managed to hang on to the starting QB job despite some early San Francisco struggles that are not all entirely on him. The eighth-year starter has completed 170 of 254 passes for 2,112 yards and 12 touchdowns on five interceptions. Garoppolo threw for 176 yards and two touchdowns in San Francisco's win over Jacksonville. The return of George Kittle has helped bolster Garoppolo's play, with the fifth-year tight end recording a touchdown catch in each of the three games he's played since returning from a knee injury on 11/7. 

Wideout Brandon Aiyuk has also turned a corner after a disappointingly slow start to the season. Aiyuk has 21 catches for 251 yards and two TDs in his last five games, a dramatic increase in productivity after catching just eight balls through the first four games of the season. With 236.1 yards through the air (15th), the 49ers are middle of the pack, but with Kittle healthy, Aiyuk regaining his rookie form and Samuel continuing his stellar season, that should change. Veteran wideout Mohamed Sanu (15 REC, 177 YDS) is overdue to become a bigger part of the offense, and should benefit from Kittle's return and Garoppolo getting more comfortable spreading the ball around. 

The 49ers defense has struggled early this season, particularly against the run, where they are giving up 115.9 yard per game (20th). But the last few games have told a different tale. They held the Rams and Jaguars to a combined 20 points, while registering two interceptions and five sacks in their two wins. They have limited opponents to an 89.7 rushing average in the last three games and cleaned up their issue with pass interference penalties that plagued them during a stretch where they lost four straight. The 49ers still have 14 defensive pass interference penalties the season, last in the league, and will have to be disciplined against Minnesota and a few other high flying offenses on the horizon if they want to keep winning. 

Linebacker Fred Warner leads the team with 89 tackles (54 solo). Jimmie Ward's two interceptions leads a secondary that is giving up 202.4 yards per game (4th), while free agent acquisition Josh Norman's six forced fumbles lead the team and the league. They'll be tested against a Vikings team that is in the Top 10 of several passing categories with the always dangerous Kirk Cousins under center. 

Cousins has completed 255 of 374 passes this season for 2,775 yards (68.2%) and 21 touchdowns with just two interceptions. He has a handful of dynamic receivers who might just make the 49ers secondary wish they could play Jacksonville every week. Justin Jefferson (63 REC, 944 YDS, 6 TDS), Adam Thielen (58 REC, 624 YDS, 8 TDS) and tight end Tyler Conklin (38 REC, 388 YDS, 3 TDS) are key parts of a Viking offense that is averaging 267.8 yards per game through the air (8th) with a 68.09 completion percentage (4th). Jefferson's 944 receiving yards lead the team and are good for fourth in the league, while Thielen's eight touchdowns are tops on the team.  Both payers had eight catches a piece with Jefferson scoring two touchdowns and Thielen adding another in Minnesota's 31-24 win over Green Bay on Sunday.

Dalvin Cook (161 ATT, 734 YDS, 4 TDS) leads a Viking's rushing attack that is averaging 119.2 yards a game (8th). Cook's 734 yards are fourth amongst NFL running backs. The Viking are just 31st in the league in rushing touchdowns per game (.05) with only the Falcons having less. With 2.1 passing touchdowns a game (8th) they clearly prefer to get points with Cousin's arm. Regardless, this is a solid offense that the 49ers will have to play with the same intensity they did against a similar Rams team. 

If you're looking for the problem in Minnesota, it's the defense. The Vikings are giving up 127 yards per game on the ground (27th), 251.9 yards per game through the air (20th) and 24.2 points per game (22nd).  Linebacker Erik Kendricks leads the team in tackles with 102 total, good for fifth in the league, while defensive end Danielle Hunter's six sacks lead the team. Minnesota survived the Packers, but gave up 386 yards passing and four touchdowns to Aaron Rodgers. The Vikings are last in the league with 69.3 yards per game in penalties, and their nine defensive holding penalties are tied for second most in the league. 

Prediction

I don't expect the same dominating defensive performance from the 49ers that they put up against the Rams and Jaguars, but the Vikings have a way of beating themselves, and are vulnerable on the ground and through the air. That's bad news going against a 49er offense that appears to be finding its identity. 

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