NFL Game OF The Week: Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers

The 2-3 Colts will travel to Santa Clara Sunday night to take on a 2-4 49ers team coming off its bye week. This may not be the powerhouse matchup NBC predicted when they made their schedule, but there are plenty of intriguing questions coming into this game. Will Jimmy Garropolo play? Where will Trey Lance run? What is the 49ers offensive identity? If Santa Clara isn't San Francisco, then where is it?

The Colts will be arriving feling good about themselves after throttling the Texans on Sunday. Carson Wentz threw for 223 yards and two Tds, while Running back Jonathan Taylor ran for 145 yards, including a run of 83 that set up one of his two Tds. The Colts defense intercepted David Mills twice and held the Texans to just a field goal in the 31-3 win. 

Wentz has had a few injury issues this season, but overall is putting up the kind of numbers the Colts were hoping to see. Through five games he's competed 64.2 percent of his passes, thrown for 1,545 yards with nine Tds and just one interception. His lone pick is the lowest amongst NFL quarterbacks who have attempted at least 150 passes. Taylor has 457 yards on the ground (5.4 yards per carry), good for fifth in the NFL. And the Colts wideouts have proved to be solid targets for Wentz, including Zach Pascal and tight end Mo Allie-Cox, who each have a team-leading three TD catches. Taylor has also been a solid target, hauling in 14 catches and a TD. The Colts are averaging 124.2 yards per game on the ground, good for 11th in the league. 

Defensively, the Colts have struggled, giving up an average of 255.5 yards per game through the air and 111.5 on the ground. Linebacker Bobby Okreke has been a bright spot. The third-year player's 51 total tackles lead the team and are good for eighth in the league. Okreke had a season high 14 tackles (nine solo) against Houston. Darius Leonard remains a formidable presence alongside Okreke, with 45 tackles and two interceptions. 

DT DeForest Buckner has 28 tackles and the 49ers will have to account for him, even if he appears to have lost a step. He registered a career low 58 tackles last season after being acquired from San Francisco in 2020. Buckner had seven and a half sacks and 62 tackles on the 2019 49er team that went to the Super Bowl, and the Colts hope he can regain the form he showed as an anchor on that defense. And they'll need him, especially if Trey Lance gets the start and starts eating up yards with his legs. 

Lance was 15 of 29 for 192 yards and an INT in the 49ers 17-10 loss to Arizona before the bye. The rookie QB also ran 16 times for 89 yards. Half the world wants to declare him the next Lamar Jackson, the other half points to his scrambles as an inability to hang tough in the pocket. You decide. The reality is somewhere closer to the middle of either opinion. Lance is still learning Shanahan's offense, still learning how to get rid of the ball quickly and and is still developing his pocket presence. But, he can clearly make plays with his legs. He's currently the 49ers third leading rusher with 133. Elijah Mitchell (189) leads the team, and rookie Trey Sermon has been a sold contributor with 135. For the sake of his health, it would behoove Lance to let Mitchell and Sermon help him with the ground game, freeing him to focus on finding some of his wideouts. 

Lance suffered a sprained knee against Arizona, and Jimmy Garoppolo is expected to get the start, his first since suffering a calf strain against Seattle on 10/3. Garoppolo has completed 78 of 118 passes for 925 yards this season, with 5 TDs and two interceptions. Garoppolo remains the official starter for now, but even with Lance nursing an injury, the calls for the rookie to take over the starting job keep growing. Garrropolo's window to hang on as the starter is closing. 

garropolo and Lance have talent around them. While second year started Branson Aiyuk has dropped off statistically (8 Rec, 90 YDS, 1 TD) Deebo Samuel has fully emerged as the 49ers' best playmaker and premier target for. Samuels' 540 receiving yards are good for fifth in the NFL, and his 17.7 yard receiving average is third amongst wideouts with at least 20 catches. The rest of the 49ers offense features players either emerging or hurt. Tight End George Kittle (19 REC 227 YDS 0 TD) is still on IR with a calf injury he originally sustained (and played through) in Week 1. Mohamed Sanu (10 REC 107 YDS) has provided veteran leadership but has yet to catch a TD pass. Tight End Ross Dwelley (3 REC, 46 YDS, 1 TD) has been fine filling in for Kittle, but he's not Kittle. 

Aiyuk finished last season with 60 catches for 748 yards and five TDs. Everyone is questioning the drop off in production. Some say he's in Kyle Shahnahan's doghouse. Some say he's seeing less targets because Samuel has become such a playmaker. Regardless of the reason, if he 49ers can get him more involved in the offense and back to last year's form everyone benefits. The 49ers 122 yards per game on the ground is good for 11th in the league, but their 1,243 total yards in the air put them in the bottom half of the league. 

The 49ers defense under new defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans gave up 30 and 28 points in losses to Green Bay and Seattle respectively. But they kept things close in the loss to Arizona, holding the NFL's only unbeaten team to 17 points. The Niners have suffered some key injuries in the secondary and are giving up 23.8 points per game and 216.6 yards per game through the air. Defensive stalwart Fred Warner leads the team with 45 tackles (29 solo). DE Nick Bosa has looked good, though not dominant, since his return from last year's torn ACL, and he leads the teams with five sacks. They'll need to get after Wentz and contain the Colts' ground game. If Jonathan Taylor goes for something like 145 yards again, the 49ers will be in trouble. 

Prediction

The 49ers are still without an offensive identity. They're -3.0 favorites in this game, and certainly have the offensive talent to burn the Colts defense, but with inexperience and injuries still a factor it's tough to feel confident that they can. Garropolo could carve them up with TDs to Samuel and Aiyuk, or he could throw a costly pick or two and scramble all day with nothing to show for it. I have to believe they'll come back from this bye reenergized, and Garropolo, with his job on the line, will be fired up to play. 

49ers 24-Colts 17.